How deadly is CoronaVirus(Covid-19)? Research and More about the Pandemic
On the morning of March 28, the Domingo Vega of queens New York went to the hospital with symptoms of pneumonia and tested positive for covert 19. This is Domingo but not just him.
This light represents 500 people who have been infected with the novel coronavirus in New York City by May 16.
There were nearly 190000 known cases of covert 19 there. Health officials report these numbers every day in cities and countries around the world, but they know that they're incomplete. Because covert testing has been like a narrow flashlight in a dark room. Anything we're not pointing the light that we can't see.
There were nearly 190000 known cases of covert 19 there. Health officials report these numbers every day in cities and countries around the world, but they know that they're incomplete. Because covert testing has been like a narrow flashlight in a dark room. Anything we're not pointing the light that we can't see.
But now researchers are collecting data they can capture the pandemic more fully to try to get a better handle on just how much we've lost.
Domingo Vega died on April 16 at the age of 45. Originally from Mexico, he came to the U. S. when he was 16 and worked in restaurant kitchens since then eventually launching his own business with 2 locations in Brooklyn. He and his wife had 3 children. Domingo was 1 of 20000 720 new Yorkers whose lives were cut short by the coronavirus as of may 16 according to the city's count.
Each blue-light represents 500 known deaths from covert 19 and 500 families who don't need data to tell them how dangerous this disease can be. But when it comes to the statistics that question how deadly it is called 19 has been difficult to answer.
The relationship between the known deaths and the known cases it's called the case fatality rate. At this point in New York City, one out of 9 people known to have called in 19 have died that's 11 percent. But that rate varies drastically across cities and countries. It was over 12 percent in Sweden in mid-May, but less than a percent in Iceland. It also changes over time. For the US to drop down to one percent near the end of March before climbing back up as people who tested positive several weeks prior ended up dying.
When the case fatality rate varies this much it's saying a lot more about these countries than about the disease itself for example deaths may be higher in places where the health system is overwhelmed or where the population is older. We know that covert 19 is more deadly and seniors especially those over 75. But also on the other side of the fraction, the rate reflects how much testing is happening. If a country is aware of more nonfatal cases their case fatality rate is lower.
So this statistic isn't all that useful because we know most countries are missing cases and we're learning that we're also missing deaths. According to an estimate by the New York times, there have been thousands of deaths that weren't included in the official count for New York City. We don't know for sure if it was coronavirus that killed them but here's what we do know.
If you look at 2017-2018 to 2019 and chart the average number of deaths per week the line looks like this-
It includes deaths from all causes. For 2020 so far that line of weekly deaths looks like this-
The area above the typical level is called excess deaths by researchers and it gives us a fuller picture of the cost of this pandemic. We're seeing excess deaths in many places that have suffered big outbreaks. In each case, the excess deaths are higher than the official count of coronavirus deaths. It includes people who may have died from other causes but you were unable or unwilling to access medical care because of the pandemic. But it also includes some people with coronavirus who weren't counted because they died at home or in care facilities or were never diagnosed.
As this data comes in it shows us that in some places the pandemic is even more deadly than we thought. But the virus itself may be less deadly because we're also learning that a lot more people have been infected than the official tally show health officials in New York have taken small blood samples to people at grocery stores to check for covert antibodies this is called the Serra prevalence survey and it helps capture the substantial number of people who didn't know they ever had coronavirus.
So far these tests show that around 20 percent of people in New York City tested positive for antibodies that indicate a previous covert infection. If those shoppers are representative of the city's population that would mean there were more than 1.5000000 COVID-19 cases in the city by early May. Without changing how many people have died the antibody survey lowers the fatality rate by identifying more nonfatal cases remember the case fatality rate was 11 percent or one in 9 the fatality rate. For all of those who have been infected may fall somewhere between 1 and 60 and 1 in 90 for New York City.
So while the death count is higher than we thought the death rate may be lower. But a low fatality rate is not all good news. It's a picture of a tricky virus that moves undetected through many of us and causes immense suffering and death and others. We can look for comparisons to try to wrap our heads around the death toll more people lost in 3 months in the U. S. than a year's worth of car crashes or drug overdoses still fewer than the annual deaths from cancer or heart disease. But the comparisons are limited. Because unlike car accidents and cancer but 19 is contagious.
Human beings are the vector for this disease and their actions are hard to predict so even with better data on how many are infected and dying we won't know the full death toll of this pandemic until we find out how it ends.
